GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Jan 23, 2025
<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are the primary problem mostly from strong winds on Tuesday and late last week that blew generally from the W and some NW. On Tuesday, ski guides near Cooke City spotted a </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33805"><span><span><span><span><span><… ft wide wind slab</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> that released naturally. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Larger persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> that could break on old faceted layers 1-2 feet above the ground have become much less frequent. The peak instability was almost two weeks ago after a long period of sustained snowfall following Christmas. With only light snowfall trickling in since then, the likelihood of triggering one of these has dropped significantly but the possibility remains.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Faceted layers of snow that cause persistent slab avalanches are like relationships - they can break in an instant, but take time to repair and build trust. With several large avalanches last week near Cooke City (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33528"><span><span><span><span><span><…; and </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33544"><span><span><span><span><span><…;), one in the </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33584"><span><span><span><span><span><… Madison Range</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, and one </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33790"><span><span><span><span><span><… sign of instability last Sunday near Cabin Creek</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, I need a little more time to build the trust to enter big terrain.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>For these reasons today the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>are the main problem in the mountains near Bozeman, Big Sky, and Island Park. To be honest, they are always a concern to varying degrees, and I’ve been fooled many times thinking wind slabs had stabilized only to find one that hadn’t. Increased winds today may form new, shallow wind slabs and keep older wind slabs unstable. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Today seek out slopes sheltered from the wind</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Dave and his partner </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33816"><span><span><span><span><span><… this exact strategy yesterday</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> in the northern Bridgers even though it was not easy to find a wind sheltered slope. Persistent slab avalanches are unlikely, and old weak layers have gained strength on most slopes where the snowpack is over about 5 feet deep.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind loaded slopes and LOW on non wind loaded slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE
Do you like to hike? Do you like to ski/ride? Then the King & Queen of the Ridge on 2/1 is for you. Hike, ride and raise money for the Friends of the Avalanche Center at Bridger Bowl this year! Join this fun event to promote and support avalanche safety and awareness! Fundraising prizes for the top 5 individuals who raise over $500.
Weather and Avalanche Log for Thu Jan 23, 2025
Top of Bridger Lift storm total 16" snow/0.25" swe (1.5% density!)
Winds have worked over many slopes near the Throne. We found some slopes stripped nearly to dirt with the snow blown off to who knows where, and others had wind-sculpted sastrugi. Trees were broken off, and debris littered the snow surface. Photo: GNFAC
Variable Conditions at the Throne
We rode to the motorized boundary and toured up the shoulder of the Throne, poked out to the north-facing runs at the top, and then moved to the south-aspect gully from the upper saddle.
Winds have worked over many slopes near the Throne. We found some slopes stripped nearly to dirt with the snow blown off to who knows where, and others had wind-sculpted sastrugi. Trees were broken off, and debris littered the snow surface. We probed for snow depths. On the east face, depths ranged from 20 cm to 100 cm on the shoulder (we may have missed deeper spots). At the upper portion of the north-facing run, we found 50-75 cm depths. The south face had a 115 cm depth.
There was some isolated wind-loading mid-slope. We saw one old crown that was nearly drifted in on a steep break over at mid-elevation on the east face.
Somehow, we found a slope sheltered from the wind's effects. Because the danger is low on non-wind-loaded slopes, we considered traveling down through avalanche terrain. Before we did, we assessed stability to give us one last chance to turn around, and we followed safe travel practices, exposing one skier at a time to potentially hazardous terrain.
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Jan 22, 2025
<p>Wind slab avalanches will be the most likely problem today after yesterday's strong winds as well as strong winds from late last week. You'll surely find them under upper elevation ridgelines and cornices, but look for them at lower elevations where winds cross load gullies, subridges, and other terrain features. Yesterday in Sheep Creek near Cooke City, guides spotted a 200 ft wide wind slab that had released naturally. It may be harder to identify these areas with a few inches of new snow camouflaging the fresh wind slabs.</p>
<p>This wind loading will bump up the possibility of triggering a much larger persistent slab avalanche breaking on old weak layers of facets about 1-2 feet above the ground. These larger avalanches have become much less frequent with three spotted just over a week ago, and snowmobiler triggering deep shooting cracks on Sunday in the southern Madison Range.</p>
<p>Today in the southern Madison and Gallatin Ranges, in the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, and in the mountains near Cooke City; the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>
<p>Wind slab avalanches are the main problem as well in the mountains near Bozeman, Big Sky and Island Park. Dave describes this problem well in his video from yesterday in Hyalite Canyon posted to YouTube. Fresh snow today will make it harder to identify these fresh wind slabs, but use your best judgement to estimate where winds deposited snow yesterday and avoid those slopes.</p>
<p>Persistent slab avalanches are unlikely, and old weak layers have gained strength on most slopes where the snowpack is over about 5 feet deep. Today in the Bridger Range, in the northern Gallatin and Madison Ranges, and the Island Park area, the avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind loaded slopes which are more widespread than not. Slopes sheltered from the wind without any recent wind loading have a LOW danger.</p>
Today, we traveled into the Maid of the Mist basin and up and along the Palace Butte ridgeline. Although temperatures have warmed up significantly since the weekend, strong winds kept conditions frigid. Winds blew plumes of snow off the high peaks and at ridgelines, gusting 50-60 mph. Photo: GNFAC
Winds blew plumes of snow off the high peaks and at ridgelines, gusting 50-60 mph. Photo: GNFAC
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Jan 23, 2025